![]() It was a chilling reminder Russia (like France, Pakistan, the UK, the US and possibly North Korea), does not rule out using nuclear weapons first in a conflict. In the minutes before the military offensive began, Putin threatened anyone who intervenes withĬonsequences as you have never before experienced in your history. This is not a far-fetched scenario given Russia’s nuclear posture, which maintains nuclear forces on high alert, and given the nuclear threats made by President Putin. The most serious danger is that of misperception: the risk that action taken by the US or NATO in support of Ukraine is misinterpreted by Russia as a deliberate strategic provocation. The risk of nuclear use stems from tensions escalating between Russia, the US and NATO, even as the latter try to resist being drawn directly into the war.Īlthough it is extremely unlikely the US or its NATO allies would set out to conduct a nuclear strike against Russia, it is possible to imagine several scenarios that could lead them to become entangled in the conflict, leading to unintended nuclear escalation. Russia has the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world. Russian ICBM missile launchers move during a military parade in 2016. NATO partners France and the UK have their own advanced nuclear capabilities and NATO-sharing states Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey host US nuclear weapons on their territory. On the other side, Ukraine’s most powerful strategic partner, the United States, also has an extremely large and sophisticated nuclear stockpile. On one side, Ukraine’s attacker, Russia, has the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world, including superiority in tactical nuclear weapons designed for battlefield use. Nuclear capabilities abound in Europe, and nuclear intentions can be hard to decipher. There are genuine dangers the conflict could take on a nuclear dimension. The fact Ukraine does not possess nuclear weapons doesn’t negate these risks. In response to an incoming missile that is mistakenly believed to be nuclear-armedīy accident if command and control systems break down. In an escalating conflict to try to force an adversary to back down Nuclear weapons aren’t just abstract instruments intended to deter aggression and maintain stability.Īs countries modernise and expand their nuclear weapons arsenals, experts around the world have been warning nuclear weapons are increasingly being seen as “usable” by the political and military leaders who wield them. What can the West do to help Ukraine? It can start by countering Putin's information strategy Will we act to eliminate the nuclear threat or press mute on the alarm and drift back to sleep?
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